Southeast Asia: "house of cards"? Let's hope not

From today's Financial Times I'm reporting a short summary of a dossier on Vietnam, particularly interesting because the economic evolution of many examples of so-called "emerging countries".
Five years ago, Vietnam was considered a paradise for international investors looking for a "new China". The presence of cheap workers had driven U.S., Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese manifacturers (also tech companies like Intel and Canon) to invest in this country of 90 million inhabitants, sometimes just moving from southern China where the wages are three times higher (which is saying something).
Recently the trend reversal, or a gradual reduction of foreign investment, due to external and internal factors.
Undoubtedly among the first there is the  global economic crisis, particularly burdensome for a nation heavily dependent on exports of goods such as clothing, shoes and commodities (such as rice and coffee). The GDP, which grew at the pace of  8.1% per year of average between 2003 and 2007, is expected to increase by 6.1% in 2011. Which is not statistically a bad result, but denies some of the premises that had fueled the country until 2010.
Also because we get to the real bad news.
First, the high level of inflation. The price index in 2011 will grow by more than 21% (last year was 11.8%). It's the highest level among the countries of Southeast Asia and neighboring (only India has double-digit inflation, at 10.1%). This is causing significant social problems (strikes by workers who have real  wages lower and lower, with food prices grew by 32% between January and October) but also a flight of foreign investors (and many Vietnamese) attracted to more stable countries monetarily. Inflation has also caused an acceleration in the depreciation of the currency, the "dong", resulting in capital flight, especially towards the gold (it seems that the purchases of gold by the Vietnamese are among the world's highest, per capita) and the U.S. dollar.
The price level so high doesn't allow the monetary authorities to promote economic growth, so promising in Vietnam, with policy of cutting interest rates (the refinancing rate in the country is equal to 15%).
The second reason, primarily internal too, is the political regime. In Vietnam the ruler is Communist Party. In a situation like the present it has been accused not only of not pursuing appropriate reforms, but also to have introduced pseudo-authoritarian measures, such as a crackdown on freedom of expression and humanitarian rights, barriers to imports of luxury goods and restrictions on visas for foreign workers.
In addition, the vast expansion of credit (among the most important reasons for high inflation) has encouraged unnecessary state enterprises and favoured private companies .
But why are we talking about Vietnam? Because the situation thus outlined appears very similar, obviously smaller, to the scenario envisioned by an analyst of the magazine "Forbes". Not later than a few days ago he warned the world about the possibilities of a possible future collapse of the Chinese and Russian economies. Among the reasons given, the most important seems to be the excessive state interference on economic affairs, both through licenses granted to firms protected and through the "mood changes" regarding business favors by political leaders, judges of the fortunes or the misfortunes of the companies.  Moreover a poor preparation by governments to encourage indeed the private initiative.
As the periodic reports, we are seeing a massive flight of Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs and investors to countries more "peaceful".
Of course, hearing about the crisis for countries that are still growing at 6% per annum makes smile economies like those European that are struggling with the possibility of recession.
But this only makes an urgent resolution of the European crisis, more and more important to balance the differences in growth, now very evident among the Western countries and those of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China and India), with other countries Asian to serve as a corollary. But the recovery cannot objectively come out without the contribution of these economies that, like it or not, are dragging the world economy forward, and for which it isn't absolutely desirable to have a crisis.
In this case the saying "trouble shared is trouble halved" would not be entirely comforting.