who are the "markets"
The probable resignation of Prime Minister Berlusconi seems to hold different perspectives. The formation of an emergency government of technocrats (probably led by Mario Monti) is preferred by financial markets than early elections.
The Financial Times today outlines four possible scenarios for our country.
1. Italy has stronger economic fundamentals than Greece: the public debt is very high and is the reason that triggered the crisis, but the annual deficit is low and the real economy is big and diversified. A plan to cut debt and stimulate economic growth could fill the financial gap that has arisen. The newspaper cites the example of Ireland, which had solid fundamentals before the financial crisis, and that after having received 85 billion euros as a result of the bailout last year, has seen the rates on government bonds down sharply from 14% in July to 7.6% today, following two quarters of better than expected exports.
2. The International Monetary Fund offers a line of credit to Italy (however, this aid was refused by Berlusconi during the G20 summit in Cannes). The Fund typically provides this facilitation to countries still solvent but with problems in raising cash. This credit line would avoid in the to Italy, in the first instance, to obtain liquidity at interest rates that are unsustainable at their current level. But it would be a palliative solution, because it should still be accompanied by an austerity plan, and most of all would not persuade the markets.
3. If the two solutions above are not sufficient, Italy would have to resort to a bailout. In this case, according to the Financial Times, the European Union and the IMF would support for 3 years the weight of the Italian public debt payments. But such a bailout would be a different size than, for example, one designed for Greece (is calculated twice).
At this point, given that the IMF's resources are not infinite, some developing countries (Financial Times cites Brazil) would argue too much money is given by international organizations to save another Eurozone nation.
4. The European Central Bank buys government bonds indefinitely and allows Rome to borrow at lower rates in the foreseeable future . This latter option would see the sure negative opinion of Germany (in the past the Germans have clearly expressed their refusal to endorse this type of operations by the ECB). The unfavorable opinion of Germany, which has two votes on the board of the ECB, may also be exceeded, but this would lead to a rift that certainly at this moment is not very desirable.
The situation, as you can see, it is fairly static. Everybody are waiting for what will happen in Italy: technical government or elections. And then decide what you should do. The markets seem clearly prefer the solution of an emergency government.
But at this point, the basic question is: WHO ARE THE "MARKETS" ?
I read an answer on the "London Evening Standard" yesterday, and follows roughly what are my thoughts. The major custodians of capital investment, what we call "institutions", it seems they are not speculating on the markets, but maintain their positions waiting to see what will be done at the political and economic level. Moreover, however large may be the market of the government bonds, being most of these bonds in the hands of insurance companies and pension funds (which buy them for long-term tenure in their portfolios), only a small part is intended to trade.
So who are speculating on whether resolution of the crisis, the global community of investors or a large number of smaller hedge funds or investment banks? The newspaper clearly suspect the latter.
What I can say personally is that decisions about political changes, measures of austerity involving the citizens, the climate of imminent tragedy that certainly does not help the recovery of the economic cycle, are increasingly taken on the basis of the mood of financial markets, and speculation , rather than about consideration on REAL economy.
When I hear that the next attack will be on France, which already is seeing its spread over Germany at the highest levels since the beginning of the euro (despite the severe austerity measures enacted from Paris), I am assailed by the great fear of not being able to see the end and did not know the answer to the question: where does it want arrive the speculation, or rather, what's its goal?
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